4 teams who could fall early

Forecasting the NCAA men’s basketball tournament has been, and will always be, a semi-hopeless pursuit. Perfect brackets don’t exist. Even the most educated picks can ultimately look silly. The unpredictability is, of course, what gives March Madness the second half of its name.

But unpredictable does not mean random. Difficult does not mean impossible. Some outcomes — some Final Four runs, some upsets — are more likely than…